Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +300 OHIO -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -8.3 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -8.0 (+19.0) | 156.2 (+12.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -8.0 (+19.0) | 157.9 (+11.1) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -8.0 (+19.0) | 158.0 (+11.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -7.7 (+18.7) | 157.1 (+11.9) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | OHIO 68 – 67 EMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | EMU 83 – 79 OHIO |
| Jan 21, 2025 | EMU 94 – 87 OHIO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | OHIO 85 – 67 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | OHIO 74 – 56 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#331) | 1.6 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#332) | 0.03 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#329) | 0.12 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#335) | 0.499 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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