Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +320 OHIO -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +7 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -6.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -5.3 (+12.3) | 155.4 (+25.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -6.9 (+13.9) | 152.4 (+28.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -5.1 (+12.1) | 154.7 (+26.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -5.8 (+12.8) | 155.1 (+25.9) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | OHIO 68 – 67 EMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | EMU 83 – 79 OHIO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | OHIO 85 – 67 EMU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | EMU 90 – 79 OHIO |
| Feb 12, 2022 | OHIO 74 – 56 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#317) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#228) | 0.17 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#251) | -0.05 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#240) | 0.515 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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