Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | AF +280 BOIS -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +7 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -8.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -7.3 (+0.3) | 133.3 (-22.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -8.1 (+1.1) | 132.1 (-21.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -7.1 (+0.1) | 133.5 (-22.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -7.3 (+0.3) | 134.6 (-23.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | BOIS 96 – 54 AF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BOIS 80 – 57 AF |
| Dec 21, 2024 | BOIS 77 – 59 AF |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BOIS 79 – 48 AF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BOIS 94 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#153) | 12.8 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | 2.08 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#166) | 2.82 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#222) | 0.596 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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