Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +450 CONN -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +14 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -14.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.2 (-1.8) | 149.5 (+16.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.2 (-1.8) | 148.6 (+17.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.0 (-2.0) | 149.7 (+16.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -13.1 (-0.9) | 148.2 (+17.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#162) | 18.1 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#147) | 2.32 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#144) | 3.33 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#165) | 0.590 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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