Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -163 UNLV +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -0.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.3 (-12.3) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.3 (-11.7) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.8 (-12.8) | 147.7 (+6.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.3 (-12.3) | 147.7 (+6.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#111) | 6.8 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#152) | 1.24 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#153) | 1.83 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#151) | 0.571 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 26.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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