Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +115 AKR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -0.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -1.1 (-15.9) | 146.8 (-1.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -0.1 (-17.1) | 145.0 (-0.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -0.2 (-16.8) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -0.1 (-16.9) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#172) | 3.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#208) | 0.65 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#205) | 0.53 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#186) | 0.526 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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