Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NEV +120 SDSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -0.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.7 (+7.3) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.3 (+8.7) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -2.0 (+7.0) | 142.8 (-1.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.5 (+7.5) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#53) | 12.5 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#33) | 2.36 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#38) | 2.86 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#13) | 0.633 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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