Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -300 VILL +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -12.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -11.4 (-2.4) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -10.4 (-1.4) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -10.9 (-1.9) | 147.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -10.6 (-1.6) | 147.4 (-10.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#11) | 6.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#16) | 0.70 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#11) | 1.11 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#28) | 0.524 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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