Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | WCU +188 SAM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -3.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -2.2 (-5.8) | 145.2 (+16.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.3 (-4.7) | 143.0 (+19.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.0 (-6.0) | 144.9 (+17.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.4 (-5.6) | 145.9 (+16.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#258) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#274) | -0.09 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#274) | 0.00 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#268) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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