Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +110 NAVY -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +19 | 87 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -2.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (-38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.7 (-18.3) | 129.6 (-42.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.4 (-17.6) | 127.1 (-40.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.0 (-19.0) | 129.1 (-42.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.3 (-19.3) | 130.5 (-43.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-16 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#234) | -2.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#294) | -0.74 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#287) | -0.97 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#264) | 0.470 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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