Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU +115 SFA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -0.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.4 (+6.4) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.9 (+6.9) | 147.6 (-7.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.0 (+7.0) | 148.9 (-8.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.6 (+6.6) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | SFA 75 – 72 NMSU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SFA 69 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SFA 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | NMSU 72 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#188) | 2.8 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#262) | 0.66 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#232) | 0.63 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#235) | 0.533 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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