Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -1.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.8 (-14.8) | 138.3 (-8.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.2 (-15.2) | 139.4 (-9.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.9 (-14.9) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.9 (-14.9) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | SFA 75 – 72 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NMSU 73 – 67 SFA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SFA 69 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SFA 73 – 71 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#128) | 4.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | 1.68 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#141) | 1.56 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#133) | 0.576 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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