Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -5.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -4.9 (-6.9) | 139.1 (+4.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -6.4 (-8.4) | 139.1 (+4.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -6.2 (-8.2) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.2 (-8.2) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | SFA 75 – 72 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NMSU 73 – 67 SFA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SFA 69 – 60 NMSU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | NMSU 72 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#91) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#49) | 0.83 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#57) | 0.79 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#31) | 0.558 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.