With fingernails that shine like justice, and a voice that is dark like tinted glass. "Short Skirt Long Jacket" - Cake
William R. Johnson Coliseum · December 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -10.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money SFA -700 / NMSU +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +3 147 Won
Massey SFA -15.5 (-12.5) — —
Massey Totals — 148.8 (-1.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SFA -12.7 (-9.7) 142.0 (+5.0) 87% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -12.2 (-9.2) 145.5 (+1.5) 87% ✓
Baseline ML SFA -12.1 (-9.1) 143.8 (+3.2) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SFA -12.6 (-9.6) 141.4 (+5.6) 87% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 2, 2023 NMSU 73 – 67 SFA
Jan 5, 2023 SFA 69 – 60 NMSU
Mar 3, 2022 SFA 73 – 71 NMSU
Jan 22, 2022 NMSU 72 – 58 SFA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA NMSU
Overall 18-15 13-19
Conference 10-10 7-9
Home 10-5 12-3
Away 5-8 1-13
Neutral 3-2 0-3
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 65.9
Avg Pts Against 71.8 75.2
Massey 1.9 (#143) -9.1 (#318)
Bradley-Terry 0.11 (#166) -1.87 (#315)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.79 (#127) -2.42 (#312)
RPI 0.518 (#153) 0.426 (#289)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA NMSU
FG% 44.6% 42.5%
3PT% 34.3% 30.3%
REB / G 35.1 32.1
OREB / G 11.3 8.4
AST / TO 0.60 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 47.7%
TOV% 24.9% 21.1%
ORB% 33.0% 25.3%
FT Rate 25.0% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 56.3%
Opp TOV% 23.1% 15.8%
DRB% 69.5% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 36.7% 36.7%

Game Analysis

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