Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -700 NMSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.7 (-9.7) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -12.2 (-9.2) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -12.1 (-9.1) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -12.6 (-9.6) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2023 | NMSU 73 – 67 SFA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SFA 69 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SFA 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | NMSU 72 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#143) | -9.1 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#166) | -1.87 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#127) | -2.42 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#153) | 0.426 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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