Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -138 NMSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -0.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.0 (+8.0) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.9 (+7.1) | 149.6 (-20.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.3 (+7.7) | 150.0 (-21.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.0 (+8.0) | 149.5 (-20.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | SFA 75 – 72 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NMSU 73 – 67 SFA |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SFA 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | NMSU 72 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#178) | 3.8 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | 0.12 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#190) | 0.59 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#220) | 0.518 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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