Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USF -350 ECU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | USF -8.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -5.2 (+2.8) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.5 (+3.5) | 143.2 (-9.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -5.6 (+2.4) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -5.7 (+2.3) | 146.2 (-12.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#135) | -2.9 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#231) | -0.49 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#190) | -0.48 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#219) | 0.453 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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