Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -400 BING +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +14 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -10.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -10.4 (+3.6) | 143.9 (-19.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.1 (+5.9) | 143.4 (-19.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -8.5 (+5.5) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -8.7 (+5.3) | 144.9 (-20.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 62 BING |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 77 BING |
| Jan 4, 2025 | BING 87 – 82 UMBC |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#211) | -8.8 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#197) | -1.25 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | -1.96 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#217) | 0.444 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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