Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +700 INST -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -12.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -12.0 (-6.0) | 149.3 (-1.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.7 (-6.3) | 147.0 (+1.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -11.3 (-6.7) | 148.0 (+0.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.0 (-7.0) | 148.5 (-0.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 13-7 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#347) | 3.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#330) | 0.18 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#333) | 0.16 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#327) | 0.500 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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