Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | APP +145 MRSH -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +8 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -5.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -2.7 (-5.3) | 145.6 (-21.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -2.7 (-5.3) | 146.8 (-22.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.8 (-4.2) | 144.3 (-20.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -3.0 (-5.0) | 146.2 (-22.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#170) | 8.7 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | 0.94 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#170) | 1.35 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.553 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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