Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -300 BUCK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -9.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -7.8 (-14.8) | 132.1 (+16.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -7.2 (-14.2) | 129.7 (+19.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -7.1 (-14.1) | 135.1 (+13.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.7 (-13.7) | 134.3 (+14.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#207) | -7.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#173) | -2.03 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -2.44 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#190) | 0.394 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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