Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -250 SIU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -7.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.9 (+5.1) | 131.3 (-17.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.7 (+3.3) | 127.9 (-13.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -4.8 (+5.2) | 133.5 (-19.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.9 (+5.1) | 133.7 (-19.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#76) | 2.9 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#99) | 1.09 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#106) | 0.87 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#88) | 0.565 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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