Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +105 HAW -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -2.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -1.3 (+10.7) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.8 (+11.2) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.2 (+10.8) | 138.4 (-0.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -1.0 (+11.0) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | 2.4 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#176) | 0.56 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | 0.97 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.508 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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