Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1600 CP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -16.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -12.6 (-6.6) | 127.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -14.0 (-8.0) | 123.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -11.9 (-5.9) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -13.0 (-7.0) | 129.2 (+0.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-25 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 1-18 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 10-4 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 59.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#94) | -8.0 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#67) | -1.71 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#71) | -1.91 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#102) | 0.399 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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