Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -800 SF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -15.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.3 (-3.3) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.4 (-3.4) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -13.1 (-4.1) | 132.5 (-5.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.2 (-3.2) | 133.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#8) | 4.6 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#23) | 0.70 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#19) | 0.89 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#20) | 0.518 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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