Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | MER +150 UNCG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +20 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.1 (-17.9) | 130.9 (-12.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.0 (-18.0) | 129.8 (-11.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.4 (-18.6) | 128.8 (-10.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.7 (-18.3) | 130.8 (-12.8) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#238) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#254) | 0.22 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#245) | 0.33 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#244) | 0.528 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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