Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +350 UCR -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -5.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.6 (+11.6) | 130.1 (+27.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -6.7 (+12.7) | 128.0 (+30.0) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.6 (+12.6) | 131.4 (+26.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -6.0 (+12.0) | 132.7 (+25.3) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#310) | 0.80 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#304) | 0.40 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#328) | 0.531 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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