Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +900 LIB -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -15.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -15.3 (+3.3) | 129.5 (+22.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -15.1 (+3.1) | 131.5 (+20.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -14.9 (+2.9) | 130.2 (+21.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -16.0 (+4.0) | 131.9 (+20.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 19-1 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#328) | 9.8 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#313) | 1.52 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#323) | 1.82 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#302) | 0.580 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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