Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STO -110 SFPA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | STO -3.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.3 (+11.7) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -3.8 (+9.2) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -2.0 (+11.0) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -2.2 (+10.8) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#329) | -9.4 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#295) | -1.89 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#309) | -2.43 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#263) | 0.418 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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