Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -120 PFW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -0.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -0.2 (-9.2) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.2 (-8.8) | 149.6 (+5.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -0.2 (-9.2) | 148.1 (+6.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.0 (-9.0) | 149.4 (+5.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#263) | -1.2 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#247) | -0.03 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#253) | -0.10 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#242) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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