Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -105 OAK -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -3.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -0.8 (-8.2) | 156.8 (-17.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -0.9 (-8.1) | 157.7 (-18.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -0.8 (-8.2) | 158.7 (-19.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -1.3 (-7.7) | 158.5 (-19.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
| Feb 15, 2024 | OAK 71 – 63 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#228) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#132) | 0.63 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#185) | 0.47 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#131) | 0.557 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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