Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -105 PFW -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -0.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.3 (+4.3) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -0.6 (+3.4) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.4 (+4.4) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -0.3 (+3.7) | 145.0 (+3.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
| Feb 15, 2024 | OAK 71 – 63 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#179) | 2.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#188) | 0.61 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | 1.06 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#149) | 0.538 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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