Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -245 PFW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +9 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -17.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -10.7 (-1.7) | 157.5 (+35.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -9.9 (-0.9) | 156.0 (+37.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -11.1 (-2.1) | 157.1 (+35.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -11.9 (-2.9) | 157.5 (+35.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
| Feb 15, 2024 | OAK 71 – 63 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#116) | -7.8 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#86) | -1.90 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#78) | -2.96 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#32) | 0.429 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 61.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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