Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -175 OAK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -6.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.9 (+9.1) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -4.0 (+10.0) | 149.7 (-3.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.4 (+8.6) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -4.2 (+9.8) | 151.0 (-5.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
| Feb 15, 2024 | OAK 71 – 63 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#141) | -2.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#157) | -0.31 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | -0.36 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.506 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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