Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Atlantic Sun Conference · Allen Arena · February 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LIP -4.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money LIP -188 / QUC +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIP win
Actual LIP +6 126 Won
Massey LIP -3.7 (+2.3) — —
Massey Totals — 155.3 (-29.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 50% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 58% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LIP -2.1 (+3.9) 154.1 (-28.1) 66% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIP -0.2 (+5.8) 149.8 (-23.8) 61% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LIP -2.4 (+3.6) 154.2 (-28.2) 64% ✓
Baseline ML LIP -2.6 (+3.4) 155.8 (-29.8) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 QUC 87 – 81 LIP
Mar 7, 2025 LIP 81 – 75 QUC
Feb 8, 2025 LIP 94 – 81 QUC
Jan 10, 2025 QUC 75 – 73 LIP
Feb 9, 2024 LIP 90 – 88 QUC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIP QUC
Overall 20-13 18-15
Conference 11-7 7-11
Home 13-2 8-5
Away 7-11 7-10
Neutral 0-0 3-0
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.7 75.6
Avg Pts Against 72.6 75.5
Massey -1.1 (#191) -1.3 (#196)
Bradley-Terry -0.38 (#213) 0.25 (#151)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.42 (#203) 0.00 (#171)
RPI 0.483 (#206) 0.508 (#162)
Shooting & Four Factors LIP QUC
FG% 46.8% 44.9%
3PT% 34.4% 36.0%
REB / G 34.7 37.4
OREB / G 8.5 11.6
AST / TO 1.02 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.5% 53.1%
TOV% 19.1% 18.0%
ORB% 26.6% 32.3%
FT Rate 18.2% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 53.1%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 15.1%
DRB% 72.5% 73.2%
Opp FT Rate 17.4% 17.0%

Game Analysis

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