Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -213 UTEP +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -6.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.4 (+6.6) | 133.4 (+22.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -5.9 (+6.1) | 130.2 (+25.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.8 (+7.2) | 132.0 (+24.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.3 (+6.7) | 133.3 (+22.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#119) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#107) | 0.09 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#125) | -0.01 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#72) | 0.504 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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