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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–19 on winners spread MAE 8.7 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ UCLA +11.9 127.7 86% 52–76 ✓
Army @ Bucknell -0.7 145.5 47% 67–73 ✗
Drake @ Valparaiso -9.2 137.4 20% 85–82 ✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar -10.3 141.9 18% 72–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +0.5 158.6 52% 73–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +16.4 156.5 93% 59–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +6.0 130.1 71% 58–64 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +7.5 127.2 75% 64–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +8.1 141.8 77% 56–74 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +0.7 144.7 53% 82–67 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -1.3 155.9 45% 88–93 ✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.8 147.1 81% 87–85 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky +1.2 149.6 54% 74–77 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +11.6 137.8 85% 61–66 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +6.8 140.0 73% 61–93 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -3.6 129.6 37% 74–64 ✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -6.6 157.1 27% 92–91 ✓
Dayton @ St. Bonaventure -4.3 123.4 35% 59–68 ✗
Utah State @ Colorado State -4.1 154.9 36% 88–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Grand Canyon +4.2 141.2 65% 83–86 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +2.5 161.0 59% 93–94 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana +0.4 162.0 51% 67–77 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -10.9 141.5 16% 85–57 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +0.9 131.0 53% 72–71 ✗
Georgia @ Texas A&M +10.4 139.9 83% 57–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +3.5 138.1 62% 67–72 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota -10.2 128.2 18% 81–46 ✓
Seattle U @ New Mexico State +0.4 143.1 51% 75–82 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech -1.7 162.4 44% 79–86 ✗
Pacific @ BYU +12.8 150.7 88% 66–81 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +4.6 136.6 66% 58–64 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +7.7 139.8 76% 66–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona +20.5 142.8 97% 52–84 ✓
Washington @ USC +10.2 143.9 82% 74–80 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State +2.2 138.9 58% 75–70 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +6.1 135.0 71% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +7.2 135.1 74% 87–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +3.6 151.2 63% 84–70 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -4.6 156.7 34% 79–87 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +4.7 123.1 67% 75–69 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.2 119.1 29% 69–56 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -10.1 124.9 18% 67–72 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -2.0 154.8 43% 98–88 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's +6.8 138.7 73% 70–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +13.1 137.7 88% 64–69 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +7.8 144.8 76% 73–65 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +3.3 134.6 62% 58–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan -1.6 148.6 44% 69–77 ✗
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +4.1 117.5 65% 53–73 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +8.3 128.9 77% 56–54 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +13.5 131.8 89% 79–75 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +1.5 134.7 56% 67–75 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan -3.5 141.8 37% 67–56 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield -7.7 134.1 24% 70–61 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -5.1 136.9 32% 86–75 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska -2.2 134.4 42% 63–72 ✗
Houston @ Temple -14.6 127.6 9% 81–65 ✓
California @ Utah +17.3 125.1 94% 46–61 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +1.6 121.5 56% 54–52 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.