Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–34 on winners spread MAE 8.4 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Siena -4.6 144.8 34% 53–70 ✗
Manhattan @ Niagara +6.9 131.0 74% 62–68 ✓
Rider @ Marist -1.6 131.3 44% 68–52 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson -1.0 147.0 46% 74–70 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +2.1 144.2 58% 77–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +6.3 134.0 72% 74–79 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +7.2 140.4 74% 75–91 ✓
Buffalo @ Kent State +13.8 147.2 89% 68–74 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State +14.0 162.7 90% 73–77 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +13.8 145.1 90% 73–81 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia +17.4 124.4 94% 57–76 ✓
Auburn @ West Virginia +4.9 140.9 67% 77–80 ✓
Temple @ UCF +10.0 134.0 82% 77–70 ✗
Louisville @ Notre Dame +11.9 138.0 86% 62–76 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +6.6 144.0 73% 68–74 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +14.8 123.4 91% 61–81 ✓
Northeastern @ Delaware +7.4 136.8 75% 78–81 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +6.2 159.3 71% 67–84 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland -1.4 130.7 45% 66–80 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +11.2 143.6 84% 55–66 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +0.3 158.5 51% 79–77 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -2.7 135.8 40% 65–69 ✗
Western Carolina @ VMI -2.8 145.5 40% 71–65 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel +0.0 136.3 50% 74–65 ✗
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +2.7 139.6 60% 74–88 ✓
Stetson @ Queens University +2.5 159.8 59% 65–71 ✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma -7.4 147.6 25% 69–93 ✗
Iowa State @ Missouri -3.2 144.4 38% 61–78 ✗
Marquette @ DePaul -10.6 158.6 17% 89–69 ✓
Lafayette @ Colgate +10.0 134.7 82% 57–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Murray State +0.9 131.4 53% 71–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State +7.8 146.1 76% 71–79 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -6.3 157.8 28% 67–84 ✗
American University @ Navy +3.3 130.6 62% 73–69 ✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +2.3 135.5 58% 68–83 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +10.5 137.0 83% 73–83 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +10.8 155.2 84% 73–80 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +7.0 139.4 74% 70–72 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham +4.1 152.1 65% 70–85 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -5.6 133.8 30% 55–52 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -0.4 138.6 49% 76–58 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +10.7 140.9 84% 58–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Campbell +0.4 137.2 51% 78–65 ✗
Samford @ Wofford -1.0 145.8 47% 77–85 ✗
Texas Tech @ LSU -3.2 132.8 39% 76–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +12.3 168.0 87% 77–91 ✓
Ohio @ Akron +5.0 138.7 68% 77–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill +3.5 141.2 62% 81–82 ✓
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T +15.9 141.6 93% 79–64 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +18.5 129.3 95% 69–75 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -7.8 133.1 24% 86–43 ✓
UAB @ Rice -2.8 171.3 40% 70–52 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack +1.3 137.2 55% 78–71 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss +11.5 128.6 85% 58–67 ✓
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois -0.5 137.1 48% 73–81 ✗
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +6.3 142.9 72% 66–83 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona +2.9 155.1 61% 73–83 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin -1.7 132.3 44% 61–51 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State -2.8 135.8 40% 50–55 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +6.4 162.2 72% 74–69 ✗
TCU @ Mississippi State -0.8 125.7 47% 74–81 ✗
Arkansas @ Baylor +5.0 149.1 68% 64–67 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston +7.3 149.6 75% 85–81 ✗
Miami @ Pittsburgh +0.9 149.6 53% 68–71 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +16.4 142.0 93% 63–70 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +10.7 135.5 84% 66–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +8.2 152.8 77% 75–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA -6.1 148.0 29% 66–55 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +0.3 125.7 51% 70–49 ✗
Richmond @ Dayton +8.1 120.9 77% 60–86 ✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts +1.5 145.6 55% 79–87 ✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley +10.8 146.4 84% 72–77 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State -1.0 143.7 47% 73–64 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama -0.5 133.6 48% 60–77 ✗
UL Monroe @ James Madison +16.9 148.2 94% 45–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina -2.0 142.6 43% 60–59 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +2.5 134.8 59% 75–74 ✗
William & Mary @ Towson +11.6 132.3 85% 73–92 ✓
Drexel @ Elon -7.4 130.3 25% 58–72 ✗
Stony Brook @ Hampton +1.2 136.7 54% 71–66 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside +10.6 138.0 83% 65–72 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +3.7 162.8 63% 72–75 ✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas -4.3 139.6 35% 74–64 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M -2.0 130.8 43% 61–56 ✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +1.1 142.1 54% 62–64 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -5.8 141.8 30% 62–64 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +14.4 158.2 90% 68–82 ✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +11.7 149.7 86% 72–83 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State +17.7 140.9 95% 65–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Maryland +9.8 127.8 81% 63–82 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois -2.1 143.4 43% 87–69 ✓
Arkansas State @ App State +10.6 124.8 83% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +2.5 157.9 59% 83–86 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -3.5 146.7 38% 79–68 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech +7.9 151.6 76% 91–89 ✗
Clemson @ Florida State -5.4 145.6 31% 82–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +5.7 118.0 70% 73–62 ✗
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word -4.5 141.8 34% 67–69 ✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara +12.2 156.6 87% 95–89 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +2.2 142.1 58% 95–91 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +6.8 135.3 73% 71–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State +5.5 143.8 69% 72–85 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State +4.4 131.4 66% 53–70 ✓
Arizona @ Washington -7.3 156.0 25% 95–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M +10.7 149.8 83% 76–77 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -3.6 161.8 37% 80–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin +1.7 140.4 56% 65–79 ✓
Texas @ Tennessee +10.4 134.8 83% 71–82 ✓
Florida @ Kansas State +6.0 144.9 71% 50–64 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard -0.9 142.4 47% 67–71 ✗
UTEP @ North Texas +9.6 111.3 81% 42–52 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +14.2 130.6 90% 78–81 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +11.0 129.8 84% 61–58 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +11.2 144.0 85% 75–63 ✗
North Florida @ North Alabama +4.1 157.9 65% 78–91 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +2.5 135.8 59% 89–74 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +11.3 130.5 85% 72–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern +7.9 147.6 76% 68–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.