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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–14 on winners spread MAE 9.5 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gonzaga @ Portland -10.4 165.4 17% 82–67 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +9.2 138.3 80% 69–81 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -4.5 142.5 34% 74–82 ✗
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +7.6 142.1 75% 70–85 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany -2.2 143.6 42% 72–68 ✓
Princeton @ Yale +5.0 136.8 68% 65–87 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -5.8 136.4 30% 70–53 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +0.2 150.4 51% 76–81 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +1.9 141.6 57% 69–70 ✓
Long Island University @ St. Francis Brooklyn +9.6 138.6 81% 59–71 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +14.8 140.9 91% 65–103 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +21.0 147.9 97% 46–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Liberty +12.2 127.8 87% 57–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +7.7 134.1 76% 63–73 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Rio Grande Valley -5.7 148.2 30% 58–64 ✗
Kansas @ Kentucky -0.1 144.7 50% 77–68 ✓
Arizona State @ Washington State +3.5 132.1 62% 58–75 ✓
Utah @ Oregon +1.5 135.9 55% 56–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Indiana +2.5 149.2 59% 70–86 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +11.7 137.9 86% 59–80 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -3.2 135.4 39% 62–81 ✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma State +9.2 125.5 80% 60–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +11.2 141.5 84% 87–94 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +11.1 143.9 84% 81–67 ✗
Omaha @ Oral Roberts +22.9 156.3 98% 64–73 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +6.2 139.0 72% 60–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M +8.5 143.0 78% 66–72 ✓
San José State @ San Diego State +11.0 135.7 84% 51–72 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +17.2 132.2 94% 56–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU -8.6 127.1 22% 57–56 ✓
California @ Stanford +10.9 126.7 84% 46–75 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -0.3 142.6 49% 62–68 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -2.0 158.4 43% 94–81 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly -3.8 124.0 36% 65–36 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -0.8 128.1 47% 72–65 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +1.5 146.9 55% 73–67 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon State -7.9 128.4 24% 52–60 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +10.8 153.3 84% 70–84 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +14.6 114.7 91% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ Villanova -1.5 141.9 44% 70–65 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina -0.6 128.3 48% 85–72 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh +2.2 139.2 58% 55–66 ✓
Michigan @ Penn State +5.3 145.1 68% 61–83 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +7.6 141.0 75% 79–76 ✗
Michigan State @ Purdue +10.1 128.5 82% 61–77 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +7.8 144.6 76% 72–78 ✓
Manhattan @ Canisius +6.7 143.9 73% 81–74 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris +5.1 141.2 68% 63–68 ✓
Siena @ Marist -5.5 131.5 31% 70–55 ✓
Rider @ Fairfield +1.5 129.6 55% 78–69 ✗
Georgetown @ St. John's +14.5 160.6 91% 73–75 ✓
Rutgers @ Iowa -0.6 140.0 48% 82–93 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +10.4 165.4 83% 63–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State -4.7 121.9 34% 66–72 ✗
Drake @ Belmont +1.3 142.7 55% 79–61 ✗
Bradley @ UIC -10.6 132.7 17% 83–76 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro +1.7 139.5 56% 69–57 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +21.5 133.5 97% 72–78 ✓
South Florida @ SMU +0.4 143.9 51% 80–82 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa -13.3 156.4 11% 80–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.