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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–20 on winners spread MAE 7.7 67 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic	+11.4	136.5	85%	67–85	✓
SMU @ Memphis	+15.9	149.2	93%	84–99	✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International	-0.6	145.4	48%	69–78	✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's	+1.5	121.5	55%	63–60	✗
Iowa @ Michigan State	+2.3	150.3	58%	61–63	✓
Longwood @ Radford	+3.1	132.2	61%	59–63	✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart	+16.6	149.0	93%	74–70	✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut	+4.5	115.8	66%	64–61	✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+4.3	161.2	65%	82–87	✓
UL Monroe @ Marshall	+19.4	146.6	96%	86–82	✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison	+18.1	158.0	95%	69–75	✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois	+8.4	141.5	78%	72–75	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	-2.8	141.0	40%	68–80	✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State	+6.5	145.5	72%	72–76	✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin	+11.2	146.2	84%	59–66	✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State	+1.9	156.4	57%	86–93	✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky	+18.8	125.2	96%	50–68	✓
Delaware @ Hampton	-7.6	145.5	24%	66–67	✗
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T	-3.0	138.1	39%	55–68	✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington	+21.6	129.4	97%	49–52	✓
Hofstra @ Elon	-11.3	141.3	15%	82–65	✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary	+5.4	128.2	69%	74–77	✓
Northeastern @ Towson	+10.3	130.6	82%	63–72	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University	+1.2	150.2	54%	82–84	✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama	-2.5	133.1	41%	62–80	✗
Stetson @ Liberty	+11.4	137.8	85%	45–74	✓
Austin Peay @ Kennesaw State	+11.7	136.1	86%	57–84	✓
Charlotte @ Rice	-1.0	144.9	46%	63–65	✗
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State	+1.9	144.3	57%	72–74	✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian	-5.2	140.0	32%	75–73	✓
Troy @ Louisiana	+3.5	147.6	63%	57–72	✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss	+17.8	130.4	95%	57–73	✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama	+3.3	132.3	62%	66–64	✗
Georgia Southern @ Texas State	+4.3	120.5	65%	67–70	✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas	+2.9	141.7	60%	54–60	✓
Omaha @ Kansas City	+8.2	135.5	77%	61–64	✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts	+19.9	161.3	96%	61–102	✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas	-0.6	162.3	48%	85–88	✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+5.2	147.3	68%	86–96	✓
East Texas A&M @ Lamar	-4.8	140.7	33%	62–57	✓
Seattle U @ Sam Houston	+8.4	134.2	78%	40–55	✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+8.2	155.5	77%	75–92	✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word	+1.3	140.3	55%	65–70	✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	+12.0	159.4	86%	87–92	✓
Purdue @ Michigan	-6.1	138.7	29%	75–70	✓
UCLA @ USC	-6.9	133.4	26%	64–77	✗
Colorado @ Oregon	+3.4	138.8	62%	69–75	✓
UTSA @ North Texas	+18.0	123.0	95%	59–63	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB	+10.8	161.0	84%	59–65	✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State	+16.9	154.4	94%	63–82	✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah	+0.6	156.8	52%	67–79	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+12.2	146.1	87%	74–78	✓
Weber State @ Idaho	+0.2	133.8	51%	73–65	✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington	+9.5	142.5	80%	68–81	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville State	-4.0	139.0	36%	67–72	✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+9.0	153.5	79%	60–79	✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine	+6.3	167.4	72%	87–78	✗
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	-3.2	143.8	38%	70–52	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	+1.4	126.7	55%	65–57	✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield	-5.3	130.2	32%	79–58	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-1.6	140.6	44%	61–62	✗
Montana State @ Portland State	-2.5	144.8	41%	75–66	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+1.4	132.0	55%	48–67	✓
Arizona State @ Washington	-1.4	141.0	45%	66–69	✗
Utah @ Oregon State	-8.3	126.5	22%	63–44	✓
Arizona @ Washington State	-1.8	149.4	43%	63–58	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i	+1.4	124.5	55%	65–64	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.