← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.7 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Houston @ UCF	-9.3	122.1	20%	82–71	✓
Georgia @ Tennessee	+20.9	127.5	97%	41–70	✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech	+0.5	143.2	52%	76–61	✗
South Florida @ Temple	+4.8	139.1	67%	76–79	✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross	-0.7	137.9	48%	74–68	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette	+10.2	119.3	82%	46–62	✓
Army @ American University	+4.7	140.6	66%	61–63	✓
Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh	+4.7	151.1	67%	79–81	✓
Vermont @ Binghamton	-5.7	133.4	30%	80–55	✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-3.8	146.3	37%	70–75	✗
UMBC @ NJIT	-3.7	148.4	37%	65–69	✗
Navy @ Bucknell	-0.2	140.4	49%	63–46	✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland	+5.9	124.4	70%	55–73	✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska	-1.6	123.6	44%	78–63	✓
South Carolina @ Florida	+20.9	132.2	97%	60–81	✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington	+6.0	153.8	71%	91–92	✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts	+0.9	134.0	53%	76–85	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne	+11.5	140.1	85%	58–72	✓
George Mason @ VCU	+6.8	133.7	73%	52–72	✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure	+3.7	133.4	63%	79–68	✗
Dayton @ Rhode Island	-7.4	125.1	25%	70–75	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb	+10.1	127.6	82%	66–78	✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop	+2.4	154.2	59%	64–76	✓
Campbell @ High Point	+1.8	146.5	56%	72–64	✗
The Citadel @ Western Carolina	+7.8	141.6	76%	81–70	✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga	+6.8	148.7	73%	85–80	✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro	+17.2	133.9	94%	50–62	✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer	+3.8	131.3	63%	67–71	✓
Samford @ Furman	+5.1	153.3	68%	84–91	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+21.1	137.9	97%	75–81	✓
Stonehill @ Hartford	-9.0	133.8	21%	56–73	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin	+13.2	160.2	88%	66–83	✓
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa	+9.7	136.2	81%	66–77	✓
Belmont @ Evansville	-12.8	147.1	12%	73–64	✓
Illinois State @ Bradley	+16.0	126.2	93%	75–79	✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington	-5.2	124.9	32%	74–66	✓
Butler @ Providence	+8.9	140.4	79%	58–79	✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama	+14.7	137.7	91%	63–66	✓
Texas A&M @ Auburn	+6.7	137.5	73%	79–63	✗
Tulane @ Wichita State	+1.0	142.0	54%	95–90	✗
Louisville @ Boston College	+11.0	131.3	84%	65–75	✓
St. John's @ Creighton	+11.7	153.4	86%	76–104	✓
Indiana @ Minnesota	-11.5	136.3	15%	61–57	✓
Chicago State @ Stanford	+13.5	135.3	89%	65–72	✓
Utah State @ San Diego State	+5.2	150.8	68%	75–85	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Wagner	+11.7	123.6	86%	65–56	✗
Georgia State @ App State	+5.8	123.9	70%	59–71	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine	-1.5	132.1	45%	71–72	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.