Tire tracks all across your back - I can see you've had your fun. "Crosstown Traffic"- Jimi Hendrix
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–32 on winners spread MAE 8.3 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Princeton @ Columbia -9.8 135.7 19% 68–49 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +8.8 159.8 79% 69–88 ✓
Dartmouth @ Yale +23.8 127.6 98% 81–77 ✗
Harvard @ Brown +0.8 121.7 53% 70–68 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena +13.5 132.7 89% 60–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +1.5 143.5 55% 72–63 ✗
Iona @ Marist -14.5 134.0 9% 84–57 ✓
Canisius @ Manhattan -1.5 147.6 44% 64–57 ✓
Niagara @ Fairfield +2.8 118.4 60% 77–69 ✗
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +7.9 139.8 76% 64–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +3.2 158.1 62% 85–90 ✓
Akron @ Ball State +5.6 137.3 70% 63–70 ✓
Stanford @ California -4.9 120.3 33% 70–92 ✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +15.3 150.3 92% 64–81 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +10.8 143.8 84% 60–69 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma State +1.2 140.3 54% 56–46 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Missouri +10.9 159.1 84% 82–85 ✓
St. John's @ Providence +12.2 160.0 87% 80–83 ✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota -4.3 123.7 35% 81–79 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +5.5 135.9 69% 72–89 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo +11.2 151.9 85% 62–80 ✓
Kentucky @ Alabama +11.0 158.9 84% 52–78 ✓
Duke @ Boston College -10.3 128.7 17% 65–64 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Florida State -0.1 142.3 50% 64–75 ✗
Georgia @ Florida +10.2 134.0 82% 75–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +18.0 160.7 95% 89–101 ✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +8.0 141.7 77% 74–70 ✗
Wisconsin @ Illinois +6.7 132.6 73% 69–79 ✓
Iowa State @ TCU +2.6 126.4 59% 69–67 ✗
Tulane @ Temple +2.8 149.3 60% 87–76 ✗
East Carolina @ Memphis +13.8 145.6 90% 59–69 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa -1.8 121.6 44% 57–69 ✗
UIC @ Indiana State +16.7 149.9 94% 60–80 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville -0.0 130.6 50% 69–61 ✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +10.5 126.2 83% 67–71 ✓
Georgetown @ Marquette +22.6 161.8 98% 73–95 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +7.9 118.3 76% 54–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham +8.2 148.1 77% 54–66 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle +1.0 138.9 54% 75–77 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason +11.7 132.0 86% 75–86 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington +1.1 150.0 54% 73–81 ✓
Radford @ Gardner-Webb +5.4 123.8 69% 63–59 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +1.3 143.0 55% 67–61 ✗
Campbell @ UNC Asheville +7.4 142.5 75% 55–58 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +16.6 152.2 93% 78–85 ✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan -0.7 152.4 48% 56–62 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill +6.3 140.2 72% 49–51 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +7.5 141.8 75% 61–73 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -2.1 134.5 42% 60–59 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +26.4 147.7 99% 74–105 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T -5.9 141.7 30% 66–61 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +20.5 130.1 97% 35–67 ✓
Hofstra @ William & Mary -4.6 141.1 34% 75–62 ✓
Hartford @ Sacred Heart +18.8 135.7 96% 71–78 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State +4.5 140.6 66% 53–59 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +20.7 124.5 97% 66–88 ✓
Wake Forest @ Louisville -11.5 143.7 15% 80–72 ✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +8.8 138.1 79% 58–60 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin +0.3 138.2 51% 68–73 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Arlington -3.0 133.3 39% 76–61 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -1.2 152.5 46% 57–76 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack +5.0 113.0 68% 53–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -11.9 137.0 14% 65–60 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +6.2 125.2 71% 64–58 ✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +1.9 126.3 57% 81–75 ✗
Denver @ Western Illinois +2.0 150.4 57% 74–91 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +6.0 130.1 71% 59–69 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +18.5 125.0 95% 77–82 ✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina -23.1 121.5 2% 85–42 ✓
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -15.5 146.3 8% 69–66 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +18.3 148.4 95% 66–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State -0.4 146.1 49% 73–78 ✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.2 142.9 51% 66–70 ✓
South Carolina State @ Coppin State +10.4 177.6 83% 73–85 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh +4.4 144.7 66% 75–74 ✗
Western Kentucky @ UTSA -1.9 147.2 43% 74–64 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +7.1 143.1 74% 46–57 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis +7.3 144.0 75% 55–78 ✓
Nevada @ San José State +0.1 133.8 50% 67–40 ✗
Winthrop @ Longwood +14.5 146.2 91% 71–85 ✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State -2.5 143.5 41% 70–56 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +4.9 132.7 67% 70–68 ✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina +1.7 143.2 56% 45–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner +7.7 137.5 76% 68–63 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton -2.0 141.6 43% 79–63 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -5.5 121.7 31% 62–57 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -4.2 139.6 35% 69–54 ✓
San Diego State @ Wyoming -8.3 139.4 22% 80–75 ✓
Xavier @ Villanova -0.7 151.9 47% 88–80 ✓
Delaware State @ Howard +9.5 135.4 81% 64–84 ✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana +17.0 148.3 94% 84–89 ✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State +3.0 147.5 61% 48–68 ✓
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +1.2 139.4 54% 82–80 ✗
Fresno State @ Colorado State +6.3 128.1 72% 57–79 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +6.9 150.7 74% 84–80 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock -2.6 159.6 41% 74–68 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +2.1 146.3 57% 60–57 ✗
Washington State @ Arizona +12.7 157.2 88% 74–61 ✗
Syracuse @ Virginia +13.8 127.9 90% 66–73 ✓
Delaware @ Charleston +15.5 150.4 92% 64–75 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +6.9 143.4 73% 76–89 ✓
Missouri State @ Belmont +0.8 137.2 53% 61–74 ✓
Ohio @ Bowling Green -1.6 146.3 44% 79–88 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +16.1 128.4 93% 54–66 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho +2.4 157.4 59% 74–58 ✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +5.6 142.6 69% 75–78 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville +5.5 129.2 69% 44–51 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +7.6 164.6 76% 59–82 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -8.7 141.3 21% 80–71 ✓
Tarleton State @ Sam Houston +15.6 134.0 92% 68–75 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +9.0 147.3 79% 62–86 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia +2.1 146.4 58% 76–62 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +3.7 152.3 63% 97–95 ✗
Alabama State @ Jackson State +8.4 145.2 78% 58–61 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +3.6 153.0 63% 75–68 ✗
Murray State @ Drake +7.8 134.9 76% 64–82 ✓
North Texas @ Middle Tennessee -2.3 118.2 42% 56–51 ✓
Dartmouth @ Brown +10.9 124.7 84% 70–77 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +5.2 140.1 68% 56–69 ✓
Duquesne @ Richmond +4.7 132.8 66% 73–75 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +20.7 135.4 97% 66–84 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling +19.5 132.6 96% 70–76 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +0.6 138.9 52% 59–82 ✓
Towson @ Stony Brook -4.3 125.3 35% 67–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.