I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–25 on winners spread MAE 8.5 75 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Ohio State +5.4 142.1 69% 71–69 ✗
SMU @ Houston +26.9 124.4 99% 53–87 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +12.1 143.2 86% 72–64 ✗
Lafayette @ Boston University +7.2 126.3 74% 69–73 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland -1.7 141.2 44% 78–55 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross -7.1 127.0 26% 73–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -1.0 132.3 46% 50–68 ✗
Bryant @ Vermont +5.5 153.9 69% 64–74 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +12.7 149.9 88% 83–92 ✓
Navy @ Colgate +8.1 153.0 77% 73–87 ✓
UAB @ Florida Atlantic +9.7 153.9 81% 86–88 ✓
Charlotte @ Florida International -7.8 134.2 24% 60–62 ✗
Wagner @ Stonehill +4.3 135.0 65% 58–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +0.9 127.5 53% 59–55 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut +13.9 142.6 90% 59–78 ✓
Texas State @ James Madison +18.5 140.8 95% 63–62 ✗
Old Dominion @ Troy +8.7 132.9 79% 71–78 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -6.9 134.3 27% 76–81 ✗
Omaha @ Western Illinois +5.6 146.8 69% 78–74 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +14.2 146.8 90% 72–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +10.7 148.3 83% 56–78 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +24.1 130.9 99% 69–79 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +6.9 133.8 74% 68–64 ✗
Drexel @ Towson +4.5 124.1 66% 58–64 ✓
Hofstra @ Hampton -9.4 154.6 20% 67–51 ✓
Stony Brook @ Monmouth -3.0 132.6 39% 67–56 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +3.4 133.4 62% 66–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida +0.6 144.7 52% 86–89 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +17.4 130.7 94% 41–75 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson +2.1 127.6 58% 61–73 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.2 160.7 35% 66–64 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston +12.2 124.2 87% 72–68 ✗
Georgia State @ UL Monroe -0.8 127.4 47% 58–66 ✗
Washington State @ Arizona State +4.8 130.4 67% 71–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTSA -7.7 145.6 24% 72–75 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Rice +3.7 160.6 63% 88–82 ✗
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -7.6 133.7 25% 72–64 ✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State +1.7 161.1 56% 65–68 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana -3.0 150.0 39% 61–75 ✗
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +11.3 127.0 85% 45–63 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +1.1 139.3 54% 59–65 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +4.1 141.1 65% 62–60 ✗
Denver @ St. Thomas +8.8 155.4 79% 71–81 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Morehead State -1.0 146.9 46% 80–84 ✗
Montana State @ Northern Colorado -1.7 149.5 44% 77–56 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona -1.7 143.8 44% 74–75 ✗
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +6.3 149.6 72% 62–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay -6.4 137.6 28% 59–61 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -2.1 158.2 42% 77–75 ✓
Lamar @ LSU New Orleans +5.6 155.5 69% 55–81 ✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +16.8 165.7 94% 59–71 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese -4.1 135.9 36% 77–92 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +4.0 139.4 64% 49–70 ✓
Indiana @ Iowa +0.8 154.5 53% 89–91 ✓
Cincinnati @ Wichita State +1.9 129.8 57% 70–61 ✗
North Texas @ Western Kentucky -5.6 116.7 30% 70–66 ✓
Oregon @ Colorado +4.6 145.7 66% 41–68 ✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M +0.4 148.9 51% 66–63 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +2.1 156.7 58% 82–87 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -1.2 149.8 46% 88–83 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +1.1 137.3 54% 85–83 ✗
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +7.3 156.2 75% 80–92 ✓
USC @ UCLA +17.7 141.2 95% 58–60 ✓
Oregon State @ Utah +18.1 125.0 95% 60–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +1.6 134.9 56% 58–72 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pepperdine +2.9 156.0 60% 89–79 ✗
Pacific @ San Diego +7.4 164.7 75% 84–82 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.8 113.7 60% 51–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge -2.5 143.9 41% 84–74 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego -5.2 123.2 32% 62–49 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +8.3 133.9 78% 77–62 ✗
Washington @ Arizona +20.7 160.6 97% 67–70 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -5.2 157.2 32% 77–75 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount +3.8 145.7 64% 59–64 ✓
Western Michigan @ Toledo +14.7 163.7 91% 74–102 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.