Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +140 MONT -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -2.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.0 (+3.0) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.5 (+4.5) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -1.6 (+2.6) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -1.9 (+2.9) | 148.8 (+0.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#273) | 0.5 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#279) | -0.13 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#278) | -0.12 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#287) | 0.493 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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