Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -280 DEN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -8.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -6.8 (+3.2) | 150.4 (+1.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.9 (+5.1) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -6.7 (+3.3) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -6.3 (+3.7) | 152.2 (-0.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#179) | -4.3 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#163) | -0.38 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#193) | -0.87 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.447 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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