Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -115 IU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +2 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -0.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -1.6 (+0.4) | 157.5 (+22.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.4 (-0.4) | 156.3 (+23.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -1.0 (+1.0) | 154.7 (+25.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.9 (+1.1) | 155.4 (+24.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | IOWA 85 – 60 IU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IU 74 – 68 IOWA |
| Mar 1, 2023 | IOWA 90 – 68 IU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | IOWA 80 – 77 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#46) | 13.3 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#82) | 2.61 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#74) | 3.05 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#108) | 0.580 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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