Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | IU -133 IOWA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -3.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -1.2 (+7.2) | 157.4 (-15.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -1.0 (+7.0) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -1.8 (+7.8) | 154.2 (-12.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.7 (+7.7) | 154.7 (-12.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | IOWA 85 – 60 IU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | IOWA 90 – 68 IU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IOWA 91 – 89 IU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | IOWA 80 – 77 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#106) | 11.8 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#73) | 1.34 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#75) | 1.99 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#68) | 0.549 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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