Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -215 IU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.5 (+19.5) | 160.0 (-15.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -4.6 (+20.4) | 159.6 (-14.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -6.0 (+19.0) | 156.6 (-11.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.1 (+19.9) | 158.7 (-13.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IU 74 – 68 IOWA |
| Mar 1, 2023 | IOWA 90 – 68 IU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IOWA 91 – 89 IU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | IOWA 80 – 77 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#47) | 10.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#38) | 2.44 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#29) | 3.07 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#59) | 0.629 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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