Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | IU -250 IOWA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +22 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -6.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -5.0 (-27.0) | 153.5 (+4.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -5.1 (-27.1) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -6.0 (-28.0) | 156.4 (+1.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -5.8 (-27.8) | 156.0 (+2.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | IOWA 85 – 60 IU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IU 74 – 68 IOWA |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IOWA 91 – 89 IU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | IOWA 80 – 77 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#16) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#18) | 1.80 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#19) | 2.25 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#26) | 0.556 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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