Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -600 UALB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -12.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -9.9 (-0.9) | 144.7 (+30.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -9.3 (-0.3) | 144.2 (+30.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.3 (-0.3) | 145.4 (+29.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -9.5 (-0.5) | 144.9 (+30.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 3-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#223) | -10.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#218) | -1.91 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#237) | -2.70 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#259) | 0.427 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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