Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -700 TXST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -18.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -11.6 (-12.6) | 140.4 (-15.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -14.1 (-15.1) | 143.5 (-18.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -15.3 (-16.3) | 143.8 (-18.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -14.5 (-15.5) | 142.4 (-17.4) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JMU 82 – 57 TXST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TXST 102 – 93 JMU |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 73 – 68 TXST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | JMU 82 – 65 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#28) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#83) | -0.72 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#76) | -0.64 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#109) | 0.438 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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